mev-beta/pkg/mev/competition.go

package mev

import (
	"context"
	"math"
	"math/big"

	"github.com/ethereum/go-ethereum/common"
	"github.com/ethereum/go-ethereum/ethclient"

	"github.com/fraktal/mev-beta/internal/logger"
	mathpkg "github.com/fraktal/mev-beta/pkg/math"
	"github.com/fraktal/mev-beta/pkg/security"
)

// MEVOpportunity represents a potential MEV opportunity
type MEVOpportunity struct {
	TxHash          string
	Block           uint64
	OpportunityType string
	EstimatedProfit *big.Int
	RequiredGas     uint64
	Competition     int // Number of competing bots
	Confidence      float64
}

// BiddingStrategy represents the optimal bidding strategy
type BiddingStrategy struct {
	PriorityFee        *big.Int
	BaseFee            *big.Int
	GasLimit           uint64
	SuccessProbability float64
	TotalCost          *big.Int
	NetProfit          *big.Int
}

// CompetitionAnalysis represents the result of competition analysis
type CompetitionAnalysis struct {
	CompetitorCount     int
	AverageGasPrice     *big.Int
	CompetitionLevel    string  // "low", "medium", "high"
	ThreatAssessment    float64 // 0-1 scale
	RecommendedStrategy *BiddingStrategy
	AnalysisTime        int64
}

// CompetitionAnalyzer analyzes MEV competition
type CompetitionAnalyzer struct {
	client           *ethclient.Client
	logger           *logger.Logger
	decimalConverter *mathpkg.DecimalConverter
	competitorData   map[common.Address]*CompetitorProfile
	gasHistory       []GasDataPoint
	profitThresholds map[string]*mathpkg.UniversalDecimal
	config           CompetitionConfig
}

// CompetitorProfile represents a competing MEV bot
type CompetitorProfile struct {
	Address          common.Address
	TransactionCount int
	AverageGasPrice  *big.Int
	SuccessRate      float64
	FavoredProtocols []string
	CompetitionScore float64
	LastSeenBlock    uint64
}

// GasDataPoint represents a historical gas price data point
type GasDataPoint struct {
	GasPrice    *big.Int
	Timestamp   int64
	BlockNumber uint64
	Profit      *big.Int
}

// CompetitionConfig holds configuration for competition analysis
type CompetitionConfig struct {
	BaseGasMultiplier   float64
	MaxGasMultiplier    float64
	GasHistorySize      int
	CompetitorThreshold *mathpkg.UniversalDecimal
	MaxOpportunitySize  *mathpkg.UniversalDecimal
}

// NewCompetitionAnalyzer creates a new competition analyzer
func NewCompetitionAnalyzer(client *ethclient.Client, logger *logger.Logger) *CompetitionAnalyzer {
	analyzer := &CompetitionAnalyzer{
		client:           client,
		logger:           logger,
		decimalConverter: mathpkg.NewDecimalConverter(),
		competitorData:   make(map[common.Address]*CompetitorProfile),
		gasHistory:       make([]GasDataPoint, 0),
		profitThresholds: make(map[string]*mathpkg.UniversalDecimal),
	}

	analyzer.config = CompetitionConfig{
		BaseGasMultiplier: 1.2, // 20% premium
		MaxGasMultiplier:  3.0, // 200% max premium
		GasHistorySize:    100, // Track last 100 data points
	}

	// Set competitor threshold (0.005 ETH)
	analyzer.config.CompetitorThreshold, _ = analyzer.decimalConverter.FromString("0.005", 18, "ETH")

	// Set profit thresholds for different opportunity sizes
	analyzer.profitThresholds["small"], _ = analyzer.decimalConverter.FromString("0.01", 18, "ETH")  // $10
	analyzer.profitThresholds["medium"], _ = analyzer.decimalConverter.FromString("0.05", 18, "ETH") // $50
	analyzer.profitThresholds["large"], _ = analyzer.decimalConverter.FromString("0.25", 18, "ETH")  // $250

	return analyzer
}

// AnalyzeCompetition analyzes the competitive landscape for an opportunity
func (analyzer *CompetitionAnalyzer) AnalyzeCompetition(ctx context.Context, opportunity *MEVOpportunity) (*CompetitionData, error) {
	analyzer.logger.Info("Analyzing competition for MEV opportunity",
		"type", opportunity.OpportunityType,
		"estimated_profit", opportunity.EstimatedProfit.String())

	// Get current base fee
	head, err := analyzer.client.HeaderByNumber(ctx, nil)
	if err != nil {
		return nil, err
	}

	baseFee := head.BaseFee

	// Calculate basic gas price estimate
	estimatedGasPrice := new(big.Int).Mul(baseFee, big.NewInt(12)) // 20% above base fee
	estimatedGasPrice.Div(estimatedGasPrice, big.NewInt(10))

	// Adjust based on competition level
	competitionFactor := analyzer.calculateCompetitionFactor(opportunity)
	adjustedGasPrice := new(big.Int).Mul(estimatedGasPrice, big.NewInt(int64(competitionFactor*100)))
	adjustedGasPrice.Div(adjustedGasPrice, big.NewInt(100))

	// Ensure minimum gas price
	minGasPrice := big.NewInt(2000000000) // 2 gwei minimum
	if adjustedGasPrice.Cmp(minGasPrice) < 0 {
		adjustedGasPrice = minGasPrice
	}

	// Calculate success probability based on competition
	successProbability := analyzer.estimateSuccessProbability(opportunity, competitionFactor)

	// Calculate net profit after gas costs
	// Calculate net profit after gas costs
	requiredGasInt64, err := security.SafeUint64ToInt64(opportunity.RequiredGas)
	if err != nil {
		analyzer.logger.Error("Required gas exceeds int64 maximum", "requiredGas", opportunity.RequiredGas, "error", err)
		// Use maximum safe value as fallback
		requiredGasInt64 = math.MaxInt64
	}
	gasCost := new(big.Int).Mul(big.NewInt(requiredGasInt64), adjustedGasPrice)
	netProfit := new(big.Int).Sub(opportunity.EstimatedProfit, gasCost)

	// Create competition data
	competitionData := &CompetitionData{
		OpportunityType:    opportunity.OpportunityType,
		EstimatedProfit:    opportunity.EstimatedProfit,
		NetProfit:          netProfit,
		BaseFee:            baseFee,
		SuggestedGasPrice:  adjustedGasPrice,
		RequiredGas:        opportunity.RequiredGas,
		CompetitionLevel:   competitionFactor,
		SuccessProbability: successProbability,
		TotalCost:          gasCost,
		Threshold:          analyzer.config.CompetitorThreshold,
	}

	return competitionData, nil
}

// CalculateOptimalBid calculates the optimal bidding strategy
func (analyzer *CompetitionAnalyzer) CalculateOptimalBid(ctx context.Context, opportunity *MEVOpportunity, competition *CompetitionData) (*BiddingStrategy, error) {
	analyzer.logger.Info("Calculating optimal bid for opportunity",
		"type", opportunity.OpportunityType,
		"estimated_profit", opportunity.EstimatedProfit.String())

	// Start with the suggested gas price from competition analysis
	baseGasPrice := competition.SuggestedGasPrice

	// Calculate base strategy with safe gas conversion
	requiredGasInt64, err := security.SafeUint64ToInt64(opportunity.RequiredGas)
	if err != nil {
		analyzer.logger.Error("Required gas exceeds int64 maximum", "requiredGas", opportunity.RequiredGas, "error", err)
		// Use maximum safe value as fallback
		requiredGasInt64 = math.MaxInt64
	}
	gasCostForBaseStrategy := new(big.Int).Mul(baseGasPrice, big.NewInt(requiredGasInt64))

	strategy := &BiddingStrategy{
		PriorityFee:        baseGasPrice,
		BaseFee:            competition.BaseFee,
		GasLimit:           opportunity.RequiredGas,
		SuccessProbability: competition.SuccessProbability,
		TotalCost:          gasCostForBaseStrategy,
		NetProfit:          competition.NetProfit,
	}

	// Adjust for profitability - if opportunity is very profitable, we can afford higher gas
	profitRatio := new(big.Float).Quo(
		new(big.Float).SetInt(opportunity.EstimatedProfit),
		new(big.Float).SetInt(strategy.TotalCost),
	)

	profitRatioFloat, _ := profitRatio.Float64()

	// If profit ratio is high, we can bid more aggressively
	if profitRatioFloat > 10 { // If profit is >10x gas cost
		// Increase bid by up to 50% for high-value opportunities
		aggressiveMultiplier := 1.5
		increasedPriority := new(big.Int).Mul(strategy.PriorityFee, big.NewInt(int64(aggressiveMultiplier*100)))
		increasedPriority.Div(increasedPriority, big.NewInt(100))

		// Cap at max multiplier
		maxGasPrice := new(big.Int).Mul(competition.BaseFee, big.NewInt(int64(analyzer.config.MaxGasMultiplier*100)))
		maxGasPrice.Div(maxGasPrice, big.NewInt(100))

		if increasedPriority.Cmp(maxGasPrice) > 0 {
			increasedPriority = maxGasPrice
		}

		// Calculate new total cost with increased priority fee using safe conversion
		requiredGasInt64_safe, err := security.SafeUint64ToInt64(opportunity.RequiredGas)
		if err != nil {
			analyzer.logger.Error("Required gas exceeds int64 maximum for TotalCost in strategy", "requiredGas", opportunity.RequiredGas, "error", err)
			// Use maximum safe value as fallback
			requiredGasInt64_safe = math.MaxInt64
		}
		strategy.TotalCost = new(big.Int).Mul(increasedPriority, big.NewInt(requiredGasInt64_safe))
		strategy.PriorityFee = increasedPriority
	}

	// Update net profit
	strategy.NetProfit = new(big.Int).Sub(opportunity.EstimatedProfit, strategy.TotalCost)

	// Ensure net profit is positive
	if strategy.NetProfit.Sign() <= 0 {
		analyzer.logger.Warn("Opportunity not profitable after optimal bidding",
			"estimated_profit", opportunity.EstimatedProfit.String(),
			"total_cost", strategy.TotalCost.String())
		return nil, nil
	}

	return strategy, nil
}

// calculateCompetitionFactor estimates competition level for an opportunity
func (analyzer *CompetitionAnalyzer) calculateCompetitionFactor(opportunity *MEVOpportunity) float64 {
	// Base competition factor
	competitionFactor := 1.0

	// Higher competition for more profitable opportunities
	if opportunity.EstimatedProfit.Cmp(big.NewInt(100000000000000000)) > 0 { // >0.1 ETH
		competitionFactor += 0.3
	}
	if opportunity.EstimatedProfit.Cmp(big.NewInt(500000000000000000)) > 0 { // >0.5 ETH
		competitionFactor += 0.4
	}

	// Factor in known competitors
	competitionFactor += float64(opportunity.Competition) * 0.1

	// Cap at reasonable maximum
	if competitionFactor > analyzer.config.MaxGasMultiplier {
		competitionFactor = analyzer.config.MaxGasMultiplier
	}

	return competitionFactor
}

// estimateSuccessProbability estimates the success probability
func (analyzer *CompetitionAnalyzer) estimateSuccessProbability(opportunity *MEVOpportunity, competitionFactor float64) float64 {
	// Base success probability is inversely related to competition
	baseSuccessRate := 1.0 / competitionFactor

	// Adjust based on opportunity characteristics
	if opportunity.OpportunityType == "sandwich" {
		// Sandwich attacks are harder to execute successfully
		baseSuccessRate *= 0.7
	} else if opportunity.OpportunityType == "arbitrage" {
		// Arbitrage has higher success rate
		baseSuccessRate *= 0.9
	}

	// Ensure it's between 0 and 1
	if baseSuccessRate > 1.0 {
		baseSuccessRate = 1.0
	}
	if baseSuccessRate < 0.05 {
		baseSuccessRate = 0.05 // Minimum 5% chance
	}

	return baseSuccessRate
}

// CompetitionData holds the results of competition analysis
type CompetitionData struct {
	OpportunityType    string
	EstimatedProfit    *big.Int
	NetProfit          *big.Int
	BaseFee            *big.Int
	SuggestedGasPrice  *big.Int
	RequiredGas        uint64
	CompetitionLevel   float64
	SuccessProbability float64
	TotalCost          *big.Int
	Threshold          *mathpkg.UniversalDecimal
}