mev-beta/pkg/risk/profit_validator.go

package risk

import (
	"fmt"
	"math/big"
	"sync"
	"time"

	"github.com/ethereum/go-ethereum/common"

	"github.com/fraktal/mev-beta/internal/logger"
)

// ProfitValidator validates profitability of MEV opportunities
type ProfitValidator struct {
	logger *logger.Logger
	mu     sync.RWMutex

	// Profit thresholds
	minProfitUSD    float64  // Minimum profit in USD
	minProfitETH    *big.Int // Minimum profit in ETH
	minProfitMargin float64  // Minimum profit margin percentage
	maxSlippage     float64  // Maximum acceptable slippage
	maxGasPrice     *big.Int // Maximum gas price willing to pay

	// Historical performance tracking
	totalOpportunities uint64
	profitableOps      uint64
	unprofitableOps    uint64
	totalProfitETH     *big.Int
	totalGasCostETH    *big.Int
	averageGasCost     *big.Int

	// Performance metrics
	validationSuccessRate float64
	averageProfitMargin   float64
	averageSlippage       float64

	// Token price tracking
	tokenPrices map[common.Address]*TokenPrice
	priceMu     sync.RWMutex

	// Validation configuration
	strictValidation bool // Whether to use strict validation rules
}

// TokenPrice represents real-time token pricing data
type TokenPrice struct {
	Address     common.Address
	PriceUSD    float64
	LastUpdated time.Time
	Confidence  float64 // Price confidence 0-1
	Volume24h   float64
	Volatility  float64
}

// ProfitValidationResult represents the result of a profit validation
type ProfitValidationResult struct {
	OpportunityID     string
	Valid             bool
	Reason            string
	ExpectedProfitETH *big.Int
	ExpectedProfitUSD float64
	GasCostETH        *big.Int
	GasCostUSD        float64
	NetProfitETH      *big.Int
	NetProfitUSD      float64
	ProfitMargin      float64
	Slippage          float64
	GasPrice          *big.Int
	Acceptable        bool
	Recommendation    string
	Confidence        float64
	RiskScore         float64
	ValidationTime    time.Duration
}

// NewProfitValidator creates a new profit validator
func NewProfitValidator(logger *logger.Logger) *ProfitValidator {
	return &ProfitValidator{
		logger:                logger,
		minProfitUSD:          5.0,                           // $5 minimum profit
		minProfitETH:          big.NewInt(10000000000000000), // 0.01 ETH minimum profit
		minProfitMargin:       0.005,                         // 0.5% minimum margin
		maxSlippage:           0.01,                          // 1% maximum slippage
		maxGasPrice:           big.NewInt(20000000000),       // 20 gwei max gas price
		totalOpportunities:    0,
		profitableOps:         0,
		unprofitableOps:       0,
		totalProfitETH:        big.NewInt(0),
		totalGasCostETH:       big.NewInt(0),
		averageGasCost:        big.NewInt(0),
		validationSuccessRate: 0.0,
		averageProfitMargin:   0.0,
		averageSlippage:       0.0,
		tokenPrices:           make(map[common.Address]*TokenPrice),
		strictValidation:      true, // Default to strict validation
	}
}

// ValidateProfit validates the profitability of an MEV opportunity
func (pv *ProfitValidator) ValidateProfit(opportunityID string, expectedProfitETH *big.Int, gasCostETH *big.Int, slippage float64, gasPrice *big.Int) *ProfitValidationResult {
	startTime := time.Now()

	pv.mu.Lock()
	pv.totalOpportunities++
	pv.mu.Unlock()

	result := &ProfitValidationResult{
		OpportunityID:     opportunityID,
		Valid:             false,
		Reason:            "",
		ExpectedProfitETH: expectedProfitETH,
		ExpectedProfitUSD: 0.0,
		GasCostETH:        gasCostETH,
		GasCostUSD:        0.0,
		NetProfitETH:      big.NewInt(0),
		NetProfitUSD:      0.0,
		ProfitMargin:      0.0,
		Slippage:          slippage,
		GasPrice:          gasPrice,
		Acceptable:        false,
		Recommendation:    "",
		Confidence:        0.0,
		RiskScore:         0.0,
		ValidationTime:    0,
	}

	// Calculate USD values using token prices
	expectedProfitUSD := pv.convertETHToUSD(expectedProfitETH)
	gasCostUSD := pv.convertETHToUSD(gasCostETH)

	result.ExpectedProfitUSD = expectedProfitUSD
	result.GasCostUSD = gasCostUSD

	// Calculate net profit
	netProfitETH := new(big.Int).Sub(expectedProfitETH, gasCostETH)
	if netProfitETH.Sign() < 0 {
		netProfitETH = big.NewInt(0)
	}

	result.NetProfitETH = netProfitETH
	result.NetProfitUSD = pv.convertETHToUSD(netProfitETH)

	// Calculate profit margin
	if expectedProfitETH.Sign() > 0 {
		margin := new(big.Float).Quo(new(big.Float).SetInt(netProfitETH), new(big.Float).SetInt(expectedProfitETH))
		marginFloat, _ := margin.Float64()
		result.ProfitMargin = marginFloat * 100 // Convert to percentage
	}

	// Perform validation checks
	valid, reason := pv.performValidationChecks(expectedProfitETH, netProfitETH, gasCostETH, slippage, gasPrice)
	result.Valid = valid
	result.Reason = reason

	// Determine if opportunity is acceptable
	acceptable, recommendation := pv.isAcceptable(expectedProfitETH, netProfitETH, gasCostETH, slippage, gasPrice)
	result.Acceptable = acceptable
	result.Recommendation = recommendation

	// Calculate confidence based on validation results
	result.Confidence = pv.calculateConfidence(valid, acceptable, result.ProfitMargin, slippage)
	result.RiskScore = pv.calculateRiskScore(slippage, gasPrice)

	// Update statistics
	pv.mu.Lock()
	if valid && acceptable {
		pv.profitableOps++
		pv.totalProfitETH.Add(pv.totalProfitETH, netProfitETH)
		pv.totalGasCostETH.Add(pv.totalGasCostETH, gasCostETH)
	} else {
		pv.unprofitableOps++
	}
	pv.updateValidationMetrics()
	pv.mu.Unlock()

	result.ValidationTime = time.Since(startTime)

	// Log validation result
	if result.Valid && result.Acceptable {
		pv.logger.Info(fmt.Sprintf("✅ Profit validation PASSED for %s: Net profit %s ETH ($%.2f), Margin %.2f%%",
			opportunityID, formatEther(result.NetProfitETH), result.NetProfitUSD, result.ProfitMargin))
	} else {
		pv.logger.Debug(fmt.Sprintf("❌ Profit validation FAILED for %s: %s", opportunityID, result.Reason))
	}

	return result
}

// performValidationChecks performs all validation checks
func (pv *ProfitValidator) performValidationChecks(expectedProfitETH, netProfitETH, gasCostETH *big.Int, slippage float64, gasPrice *big.Int) (bool, string) {
	// Check minimum profit in ETH
	if expectedProfitETH.Cmp(pv.minProfitETH) < 0 {
		return false, fmt.Sprintf("Expected profit %s ETH below minimum %s ETH",
			formatEther(expectedProfitETH), formatEther(pv.minProfitETH))
	}

	// Check minimum profit in USD
	expectedProfitUSD := pv.convertETHToUSD(expectedProfitETH)
	if expectedProfitUSD < pv.minProfitUSD {
		return false, fmt.Sprintf("Expected profit $%.2f below minimum $%.2f",
			expectedProfitUSD, pv.minProfitUSD)
	}

	// Check net profit is positive
	if netProfitETH.Sign() <= 0 {
		return false, fmt.Sprintf("Net profit %s ETH is not positive",
			formatEther(netProfitETH))
	}

	// Check slippage tolerance
	if slippage > pv.maxSlippage {
		return false, fmt.Sprintf("Slippage %.2f%% exceeds maximum %.2f%%",
			slippage*100, pv.maxSlippage*100)
	}

	// Check gas price limits
	if gasPrice.Cmp(pv.maxGasPrice) > 0 {
		return false, fmt.Sprintf("Gas price %s gwei exceeds maximum %s gwei",
			formatGwei(gasPrice), formatGwei(pv.maxGasPrice))
	}

	// Check gas cost vs profit ratio
	if gasCostETH.Sign() > 0 && expectedProfitETH.Sign() > 0 {
		gasRatio := new(big.Float).Quo(new(big.Float).SetInt(gasCostETH), new(big.Float).SetInt(expectedProfitETH))
		gasRatioFloat, _ := gasRatio.Float64()
		if gasRatioFloat > 0.5 { // Gas cost > 50% of expected profit
			return false, fmt.Sprintf("Gas cost %s ETH (%.1f%%) too high relative to profit %s ETH",
				formatEther(gasCostETH), gasRatioFloat*100, formatEther(expectedProfitETH))
		}
	}

	return true, "All validation checks passed"
}

// isAcceptable determines if an opportunity is acceptable
func (pv *ProfitValidator) isAcceptable(expectedProfitETH, netProfitETH, gasCostETH *big.Int, slippage float64, gasPrice *big.Int) (bool, string) {
	// Calculate profit margin
	var profitMargin float64
	if expectedProfitETH.Sign() > 0 {
		margin := new(big.Float).Quo(new(big.Float).SetInt(netProfitETH), new(big.Float).SetInt(expectedProfitETH))
		marginFloat, _ := margin.Float64()
		profitMargin = marginFloat * 100 // Convert to percentage
	}

	// Check minimum profit margin
	if profitMargin < pv.minProfitMargin*100 {
		return false, fmt.Sprintf("Profit margin %.2f%% below minimum %.2f%%",
			profitMargin, pv.minProfitMargin*100)
	}

	// For strict validation, apply additional checks
	if pv.strictValidation {
		// Check if net profit is at least 2x gas cost
		doubleGasCost := new(big.Int).Mul(gasCostETH, big.NewInt(2))
		if netProfitETH.Cmp(doubleGasCost) < 0 {
			return false, fmt.Sprintf("Net profit %s ETH not at least 2x gas cost %s ETH",
				formatEther(netProfitETH), formatEther(gasCostETH))
		}

		// Check if profit margin is at least 2x minimum
		if profitMargin < pv.minProfitMargin*200 {
			return false, fmt.Sprintf("Profit margin %.2f%% not at least 2x minimum %.2f%%",
				profitMargin, pv.minProfitMargin*200)
		}
	}

	return true, "Opportunity is acceptable"
}

// calculateConfidence calculates confidence in the validation result
func (pv *ProfitValidator) calculateConfidence(valid, acceptable bool, profitMargin, slippage float64) float64 {
	if !valid || !acceptable {
		return 0.1 // Low confidence for invalid opportunities
	}

	// Start with base confidence
	confidence := 0.5

	// Increase confidence based on profit margin
	if profitMargin > pv.minProfitMargin*300 { // 3x minimum margin
		confidence += 0.3
	} else if profitMargin > pv.minProfitMargin*200 { // 2x minimum margin
		confidence += 0.2
	} else if profitMargin > pv.minProfitMargin*150 { // 1.5x minimum margin
		confidence += 0.1
	}

	// Increase confidence for low slippage
	if slippage < pv.maxSlippage*0.3 { // 30% of max slippage
		confidence += 0.1
	} else if slippage < pv.maxSlippage*0.5 { // 50% of max slippage
		confidence += 0.05
	}

	// Cap at maximum confidence
	if confidence > 0.95 {
		confidence = 0.95
	}

	return confidence
}

// calculateRiskScore calculates a risk score for the opportunity
func (pv *ProfitValidator) calculateRiskScore(slippage float64, gasPrice *big.Int) float64 {
	// Base risk (0-0.2)
	baseRisk := 0.1

	// Slippage risk (0-0.3)
	slippageRisk := slippage / pv.maxSlippage * 0.3
	if slippageRisk > 0.3 {
		slippageRisk = 0.3
	}

	// Gas price risk (0-0.3)
	gasRisk := 0.0
	if gasPrice != nil && pv.maxGasPrice != nil && pv.maxGasPrice.Sign() > 0 {
		gasRatio := new(big.Float).Quo(new(big.Float).SetInt(gasPrice), new(big.Float).SetInt(pv.maxGasPrice))
		gasRatioFloat, _ := gasRatio.Float64()
		gasRisk = gasRatioFloat * 0.3
		if gasRisk > 0.3 {
			gasRisk = 0.3
		}
	}

	// Calculate total risk score
	totalRisk := baseRisk + slippageRisk + gasRisk
	if totalRisk > 1.0 {
		totalRisk = 1.0
	}

	return totalRisk
}

// updateValidationMetrics updates validation metrics
func (pv *ProfitValidator) updateValidationMetrics() {
	if pv.totalOpportunities > 0 {
		pv.validationSuccessRate = float64(pv.profitableOps) / float64(pv.totalOpportunities)
	}

	// Update average metrics (simplified)
	if pv.profitableOps > 0 {
		avgProfitMargin := new(big.Float).Quo(new(big.Float).SetInt(pv.totalProfitETH), big.NewFloat(float64(pv.profitableOps)))
		avgMarginFloat, _ := avgProfitMargin.Float64()
		pv.averageProfitMargin = avgMarginFloat * 100 // Convert to percentage
	}
}

// convertETHToUSD converts ETH amount to USD using current token prices
func (pv *ProfitValidator) convertETHToUSD(ethAmount *big.Int) float64 {
	if ethAmount == nil {
		return 0.0
	}

	// Get current ETH price in USD
	ethPrice := pv.getTokenPriceUSD(common.HexToAddress("0x82af49447d8a07e3bd95bd0d56f35241523fbab1")) // WETH
	if ethPrice == 0.0 {
		ethPrice = 2000.0 // Default to $2000 ETH
	}

	// Convert ETH to USD
	ethFloat := new(big.Float).SetInt(ethAmount)
	ethDivisor := new(big.Float).SetFloat64(1e18) // Convert wei to ETH
	ethETH := new(big.Float).Quo(ethFloat, ethDivisor)

	usdFloat := new(big.Float).Mul(ethETH, big.NewFloat(ethPrice))
	usdValue, _ := usdFloat.Float64()

	return usdValue
}

// getTokenPriceUSD gets the USD price of a token
func (pv *ProfitValidator) getTokenPriceUSD(tokenAddr common.Address) float64 {
	pv.priceMu.RLock()
	defer pv.priceMu.RUnlock()

	if price, exists := pv.tokenPrices[tokenAddr]; exists {
		// Check if price is recent (within 5 minutes)
		if time.Since(price.LastUpdated) < 5*time.Minute {
			return price.PriceUSD
		}
	}

	// Return known prices for common tokens
	knownPrices := map[common.Address]float64{
		common.HexToAddress("0x82af49447d8a07e3bd95bd0d56f35241523fbab1"): 2000.0,  // WETH
		common.HexToAddress("0xaf88d065e77c8cc2239327c5edb3a432268e5831"): 1.0,     // USDC
		common.HexToAddress("0xff970a61a04b1ca14834a43f5de4533ebddb5cc8"): 1.0,     // USDC.e
		common.HexToAddress("0xfd086bc7cd5c481dcc9c85ebe478a1c0b69fcbb9"): 1.0,     // USDT
		common.HexToAddress("0x2f2a2543b76a4166549f7aab2e75bef0aefc5b0f"): 43000.0, // WBTC
		common.HexToAddress("0x912ce59144191c1204e64559fe8253a0e49e6548"): 0.75,    // ARB
		common.HexToAddress("0xfc5a1a6eb076a2c7ad06ed22c90d7e710e35ad0a"): 45.0,    // GMX
		common.HexToAddress("0xf97f4df75117a78c1a5a0dbb814af92458539fb4"): 12.0,    // LINK
		common.HexToAddress("0xfa7f8980b0f1e64a2062791cc3b0871572f1f7f0"): 8.0,     // UNI
		common.HexToAddress("0xba5ddd1f9d7f570dc94a51479a000e3bce967196"): 85.0,    // AAVE
	}

	if price, exists := knownPrices[tokenAddr]; exists {
		return price
	}

	// Default to $0 for unknown tokens
	return 0.0
}

// UpdateTokenPrice updates the price of a token
func (pv *ProfitValidator) UpdateTokenPrice(tokenAddr common.Address, priceUSD float64, confidence float64) {
	pv.priceMu.Lock()
	defer pv.priceMu.Unlock()

	pv.tokenPrices[tokenAddr] = &TokenPrice{
		Address:     tokenAddr,
		PriceUSD:    priceUSD,
		LastUpdated: time.Now(),
		Confidence:  confidence,
		Volume24h:   0.0, // Would be populated from real data
		Volatility:  0.0, // Would be populated from real data
	}
}

// GetStatistics returns validation statistics
func (pv *ProfitValidator) GetStatistics() map[string]interface{} {
	pv.mu.RLock()
	defer pv.mu.RUnlock()

	return map[string]interface{}{
		"total_opportunities":        pv.totalOpportunities,
		"profitable_opportunities":   pv.profitableOps,
		"unprofitable_opportunities": pv.unprofitableOps,
		"validation_success_rate":    pv.validationSuccessRate * 100, // Convert to percentage
		"average_profit_margin":      pv.averageProfitMargin,
		"average_slippage":           pv.averageSlippage * 100, // Convert to percentage
		"total_profit_eth":           formatEther(pv.totalProfitETH),
		"total_gas_cost_eth":         formatEther(pv.totalGasCostETH),
		"tracked_tokens":             len(pv.tokenPrices),
		"strict_validation":          pv.strictValidation,
	}
}

// SetStrictValidation enables or disables strict validation
func (pv *ProfitValidator) SetStrictValidation(strict bool) {
	pv.mu.Lock()
	defer pv.mu.Unlock()
	pv.strictValidation = strict
}

// SetMinProfitUSD sets the minimum profit threshold in USD
func (pv *ProfitValidator) SetMinProfitUSD(minProfit float64) {
	pv.mu.Lock()
	defer pv.mu.Unlock()
	pv.minProfitUSD = minProfit
}

// SetMinProfitETH sets the minimum profit threshold in ETH
func (pv *ProfitValidator) SetMinProfitETH(minProfit *big.Int) {
	pv.mu.Lock()
	defer pv.mu.Unlock()
	pv.minProfitETH = minProfit
}

// SetMinProfitMargin sets the minimum profit margin percentage
func (pv *ProfitValidator) SetMinProfitMargin(minMargin float64) {
	pv.mu.Lock()
	defer pv.mu.Unlock()
	pv.minProfitMargin = minMargin
}

// SetMaxSlippage sets the maximum acceptable slippage
func (pv *ProfitValidator) SetMaxSlippage(maxSlippage float64) {
	pv.mu.Lock()
	defer pv.mu.Unlock()
	pv.maxSlippage = maxSlippage
}

// SetMaxGasPrice sets the maximum gas price willing to pay
func (pv *ProfitValidator) SetMaxGasPrice(maxGasPrice *big.Int) {
	pv.mu.Lock()
	defer pv.mu.Unlock()
	pv.maxGasPrice = maxGasPrice
}