mev-beta/pkg/mev/competition.go

package mev

import (
	"context"
	"fmt"
	"math/big"
	"time"

	"github.com/ethereum/go-ethereum/core/types"
	"github.com/ethereum/go-ethereum/ethclient"
	"github.com/fraktal/mev-beta/internal/logger"
)

// CompetitionAnalyzer analyzes MEV competition and optimizes bidding strategy
type CompetitionAnalyzer struct {
	client             *ethclient.Client
	logger             *logger.Logger
	baseFeeHistory     []*big.Int
	priorityFeeHistory []*big.Int
	lastUpdate         time.Time
}

// MEVOpportunity represents a detected MEV opportunity with competition analysis
type MEVOpportunity struct {
	TxHash          string
	Block           uint64
	OpportunityType string
	EstimatedProfit *big.Int
	RequiredGas     uint64
	Competition     *CompetitionMetrics
	RecommendedBid  *BiddingStrategy
}

// CompetitionMetrics tracks MEV competition in the mempool
type CompetitionMetrics struct {
	CompetingBots        int
	HighestPriorityFee   *big.Int
	AveragePriorityFee   *big.Int
	CompetitionIntensity float64 // 0-1 scale
	TimeToInclusion      time.Duration
}

// BiddingStrategy recommends optimal gas pricing for MEV competition
type BiddingStrategy struct {
	BaseFee            *big.Int
	PriorityFee        *big.Int
	MaxFeePerGas       *big.Int
	GasLimit           uint64
	TotalCost          *big.Int
	SuccessProbability float64
}

// NewCompetitionAnalyzer creates a new MEV competition analyzer
func NewCompetitionAnalyzer(client *ethclient.Client, logger *logger.Logger) *CompetitionAnalyzer {
	return &CompetitionAnalyzer{
		client:             client,
		logger:             logger,
		baseFeeHistory:     make([]*big.Int, 0, 50),
		priorityFeeHistory: make([]*big.Int, 0, 50),
		lastUpdate:         time.Now(),
	}
}

// AnalyzeCompetition analyzes current MEV competition for an opportunity
func (ca *CompetitionAnalyzer) AnalyzeCompetition(ctx context.Context, opportunity *MEVOpportunity) (*CompetitionMetrics, error) {
	// Update fee history if needed
	if time.Since(ca.lastUpdate) > 10*time.Second {
		if err := ca.updateFeeHistory(ctx); err != nil {
			ca.logger.Warn(fmt.Sprintf("Failed to update fee history: %v", err))
		}
	}

	// Analyze pending transactions for similar opportunities
	competingTxs, err := ca.findCompetingTransactions(ctx, opportunity)
	if err != nil {
		return nil, fmt.Errorf("failed to analyze competing transactions: %w", err)
	}

	// Calculate competition intensity
	intensity := ca.calculateCompetitionIntensity(competingTxs)

	// Analyze priority fees of competing transactions
	highestPriority, avgPriority := ca.analyzePriorityFees(competingTxs)

	metrics := &CompetitionMetrics{
		CompetingBots:        len(competingTxs),
		HighestPriorityFee:   highestPriority,
		AveragePriorityFee:   avgPriority,
		CompetitionIntensity: intensity,
		TimeToInclusion:      ca.estimateInclusionTime(intensity),
	}

	ca.logger.Debug(fmt.Sprintf("Competition analysis: %d competing bots, intensity: %.2f, highest priority: %s gwei",
		metrics.CompetingBots, metrics.CompetitionIntensity,
		formatGwei(metrics.HighestPriorityFee)))

	return metrics, nil
}

// CalculateOptimalBid calculates the optimal gas bid for winning an MEV opportunity
func (ca *CompetitionAnalyzer) CalculateOptimalBid(ctx context.Context, opportunity *MEVOpportunity, competition *CompetitionMetrics) (*BiddingStrategy, error) {
	// Get current base fee
	latestBlock, err := ca.client.HeaderByNumber(ctx, nil)
	if err != nil {
		return nil, fmt.Errorf("failed to get latest block: %w", err)
	}

	baseFee := latestBlock.BaseFee
	if baseFee == nil {
		baseFee = big.NewInt(1000000000) // 1 gwei fallback
	}

	// Calculate competitive priority fee
	competitivePriorityFee := ca.calculateCompetitivePriorityFee(competition, opportunity.EstimatedProfit)

	// Calculate max fee per gas (EIP-1559)
	maxFeePerGas := new(big.Int).Add(baseFee, competitivePriorityFee)

	// Calculate total gas cost
	totalCost := new(big.Int).Mul(maxFeePerGas, big.NewInt(int64(opportunity.RequiredGas)))

	// Estimate success probability based on bid vs competition
	successProb := ca.estimateSuccessProbability(competitivePriorityFee, competition)

	strategy := &BiddingStrategy{
		BaseFee:            baseFee,
		PriorityFee:        competitivePriorityFee,
		MaxFeePerGas:       maxFeePerGas,
		GasLimit:           opportunity.RequiredGas,
		TotalCost:          totalCost,
		SuccessProbability: successProb,
	}

	// Validate profitability after gas costs
	netProfit := new(big.Int).Sub(opportunity.EstimatedProfit, totalCost)
	if netProfit.Sign() <= 0 {
		ca.logger.Warn(fmt.Sprintf("Opportunity not profitable after competitive bidding - Profit: %s, Cost: %s",
			formatEther(opportunity.EstimatedProfit), formatEther(totalCost)))
		return strategy, fmt.Errorf("opportunity not profitable with competitive gas pricing")
	}

	ca.logger.Info(fmt.Sprintf("Optimal bid calculated - Priority: %s gwei, Success rate: %.1f%%, Net profit: %s ETH",
		formatGwei(competitivePriorityFee), successProb*100, formatEther(netProfit)))

	return strategy, nil
}

// calculateCompetitivePriorityFee calculates a competitive priority fee
func (ca *CompetitionAnalyzer) calculateCompetitivePriorityFee(competition *CompetitionMetrics, estimatedProfit *big.Int) *big.Int {
	// Base priority fee (current network average)
	basePriority := ca.getAveragePriorityFee()

	// Competition multiplier based on intensity
	competitionMultiplier := 1.0 + (competition.CompetitionIntensity * 10.0) // 1x to 11x

	// If there are competing bots, beat the highest bidder by 20%
	if competition.HighestPriorityFee != nil && competition.HighestPriorityFee.Sign() > 0 {
		competitorBid := new(big.Float).SetInt(competition.HighestPriorityFee)
		competitorBid.Mul(competitorBid, big.NewFloat(1.2)) // 20% higher

		competitorBidInt, _ := competitorBid.Int(nil)
		if competitorBidInt.Cmp(basePriority) > 0 {
			basePriority = competitorBidInt
		}
	}

	// Apply competition multiplier
	finalPriority := new(big.Float).SetInt(basePriority)
	finalPriority.Mul(finalPriority, big.NewFloat(competitionMultiplier))

	// Cap at 50% of estimated profit to maintain profitability
	maxPriorityBasedOnProfit := new(big.Int).Div(estimatedProfit, big.NewInt(2))

	result, _ := finalPriority.Int(nil)
	if result.Cmp(maxPriorityBasedOnProfit) > 0 {
		result = maxPriorityBasedOnProfit
	}

	// Minimum floor of 2 gwei for Arbitrum
	minPriority := big.NewInt(2000000000) // 2 gwei
	if result.Cmp(minPriority) < 0 {
		result = minPriority
	}

	return result
}

// updateFeeHistory updates the historical fee data for analysis
func (ca *CompetitionAnalyzer) updateFeeHistory(ctx context.Context) error {
	latestBlock, err := ca.client.HeaderByNumber(ctx, nil)
	if err != nil {
		return err
	}

	// Add to history (keep last 50 blocks)
	if latestBlock.BaseFee != nil {
		ca.baseFeeHistory = append(ca.baseFeeHistory, latestBlock.BaseFee)
		if len(ca.baseFeeHistory) > 50 {
			ca.baseFeeHistory = ca.baseFeeHistory[1:]
		}
	}

	ca.lastUpdate = time.Now()
	return nil
}

// findCompetingTransactions finds transactions in mempool competing for similar opportunities
func (ca *CompetitionAnalyzer) findCompetingTransactions(ctx context.Context, opportunity *MEVOpportunity) ([]*types.Transaction, error) {
	// In a real implementation, this would analyze the mempool for competing transactions
	// For now, we'll simulate based on opportunity type and current network conditions

	// Simulate competition based on opportunity type
	var competingCount int
	switch opportunity.OpportunityType {
	case "arbitrage":
		competingCount = 3 + int(time.Now().Unix()%5) // 3-7 competing bots
	case "liquidation":
		competingCount = 5 + int(time.Now().Unix()%8) // 5-12 competing bots
	case "sandwich":
		competingCount = 1 + int(time.Now().Unix()%3) // 1-3 competing bots
	default:
		competingCount = 2
	}

	// Create simulated competing transactions
	var competingTxs []*types.Transaction
	for i := 0; i < competingCount; i++ {
		// In a real implementation, these would be actual pending transactions
		tx := &types.Transaction{}
		competingTxs = append(competingTxs, tx)
	}

	return competingTxs, nil
}

// calculateCompetitionIntensity calculates competition intensity (0-1 scale)
func (ca *CompetitionAnalyzer) calculateCompetitionIntensity(competingTxs []*types.Transaction) float64 {
	if len(competingTxs) == 0 {
		return 0.0
	}

	// Base intensity on number of competitors
	baseIntensity := float64(len(competingTxs)) / 10.0 // Normalize to 10 max competitors
	if baseIntensity > 1.0 {
		baseIntensity = 1.0
	}

	// Adjust based on time of day (higher competition during US/EU hours)
	hour := time.Now().UTC().Hour()
	timeMultiplier := 1.0
	if (hour >= 13 && hour <= 21) || (hour >= 6 && hour <= 14) { // US + EU hours
		timeMultiplier = 1.3
	}

	intensity := baseIntensity * timeMultiplier
	if intensity > 1.0 {
		intensity = 1.0
	}

	return intensity
}

// analyzePriorityFees analyzes priority fees of competing transactions
func (ca *CompetitionAnalyzer) analyzePriorityFees(competingTxs []*types.Transaction) (*big.Int, *big.Int) {
	if len(competingTxs) == 0 {
		return big.NewInt(0), big.NewInt(0)
	}

	// Simulate priority fee analysis
	highest := big.NewInt(1000000000) // 1 gwei base
	total := big.NewInt(0)

	for i, _ := range competingTxs {
		// Simulate varying priority fees (1-10 gwei)
		fee := big.NewInt(1000000000 + int64(i)*1000000000)
		if fee.Cmp(highest) > 0 {
			highest = fee
		}
		total.Add(total, fee)
	}

	average := new(big.Int).Div(total, big.NewInt(int64(len(competingTxs))))
	return highest, average
}

// getAveragePriorityFee returns the recent average priority fee
func (ca *CompetitionAnalyzer) getAveragePriorityFee() *big.Int {
	if len(ca.priorityFeeHistory) == 0 {
		return big.NewInt(1500000000) // 1.5 gwei default for Arbitrum
	}

	total := big.NewInt(0)
	for _, fee := range ca.priorityFeeHistory {
		total.Add(total, fee)
	}

	return new(big.Int).Div(total, big.NewInt(int64(len(ca.priorityFeeHistory))))
}

// estimateSuccessProbability estimates probability of transaction inclusion
func (ca *CompetitionAnalyzer) estimateSuccessProbability(priorityFee *big.Int, competition *CompetitionMetrics) float64 {
	// Base probability on priority fee relative to competition
	baseProbability := 0.5

	if competition.HighestPriorityFee != nil && competition.HighestPriorityFee.Sign() > 0 {
		ratio := new(big.Float).Quo(new(big.Float).SetInt(priorityFee), new(big.Float).SetInt(competition.HighestPriorityFee))
		ratioFloat, _ := ratio.Float64()

		if ratioFloat > 1.2 {
			baseProbability = 0.9 // 90% if bidding 20% higher
		} else if ratioFloat > 1.0 {
			baseProbability = 0.7 // 70% if bidding slightly higher
		} else if ratioFloat > 0.8 {
			baseProbability = 0.4 // 40% if bidding somewhat lower
		} else {
			baseProbability = 0.1 // 10% if bidding much lower
		}
	}

	// Adjust for competition intensity
	adjustedProbability := baseProbability * (1.0 - competition.CompetitionIntensity*0.3)
	if adjustedProbability < 0.05 {
		adjustedProbability = 0.05
	}

	return adjustedProbability
}

// estimateInclusionTime estimates time to transaction inclusion
func (ca *CompetitionAnalyzer) estimateInclusionTime(intensity float64) time.Duration {
	// Base time is ~0.25 seconds for Arbitrum
	baseTime := 250 * time.Millisecond

	// Higher competition = longer inclusion time
	competitionDelay := time.Duration(intensity*2000) * time.Millisecond

	return baseTime + competitionDelay
}

// Helper functions for formatting
func formatGwei(wei *big.Int) string {
	if wei == nil {
		return "0"
	}
	gwei := new(big.Float).SetInt(wei)
	gwei.Quo(gwei, big.NewFloat(1e9))
	return fmt.Sprintf("%.2f", gwei)
}

func formatEther(wei *big.Int) string {
	if wei == nil {
		return "0.000000"
	}
	eth := new(big.Float).SetInt(wei)
	eth.Quo(eth, big.NewFloat(1e18))
	return fmt.Sprintf("%.6f", eth)
}